WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The following is a synopsis of US economic indicators to be released this week, with forecasts provided by Thomson s IFR Markets. The upcoming week is heavy with data, including a number of high profile indicators such as GDP and employment. Economists will be watching these closely, particularly in light of growing fears about a recession and recent actions taken by the Federal Reserve, White House and Congress to protect the economy. MONDAY JANUARY 28 The week will begin with the release of December new home sales, which are expected to total 645,000, slightly below the number of homes sold in November.
"Given the current environment of falling home prices, tight credit conditions and growing recession fears, buyers will likely remain apprehensive about purchasing," said economists from Lehman Brothers.
In the evening, President Bush will make his State of the Union address, which is likely to include talk of his recent compromise with Congress on a fiscal stimulus plan. TUESDAY JANUARY 29 Tuesday will begin with the release of durable good orders, which are expected to have increased by 1.6 pct in December following a 0.1 pct increase in the previous month. Durable good orders excluding transportation are expected to have been unchanged in the month of December following a 0.7 pct decline in November. "Outside of aircraft and a bounce in defense orders, December was probably a very weak month, with broad-based declines," said Patrick Newport of Global Insight. Also on Tuesday is the release of the Conference Board s January estimate of consumer confidence, which is expected to decrease to a level of 87.5 from 88.6 in December.
"I think it will be affected by the sharp drop in equity markets we saw in the first half of the month," said Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets. WEDNESDAY JANUARY 30 US GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to have grown at an annual rate of 1.2 pct following a healthy 4.9 pct growth rate in the previous month. GDP core PCE price index for the quarter is expected to have been 2.6 pct, compared to 2.0 in the previous month.
"We anticipate that after a very strong first two months of consumption during the quarter, that the weak holiday sales took the wind out of the sails of what was looking like an above trend three months of output," said Joseph Brusuelas from IDEAglobal.
Economists from Northern Trust said "positive contributions from consumer spending, non-residential fixed investment, and exports are expected to be partly offset by a large drop in residential investment expenditures." Jay Bryson of Wachovia said that while GDP is "kind of backward looking" it still provides some sense of whether the economy is gaining momentum.
Also on Wednesday, the FOMC will announce any rate decision that they ve made during their two day meeting. Many economists are predicting a 0.50 percentage point cut to the federal funds rate, even after Tuesday s unexpected 0.75 pct point cut.
"The Fed is trying to shore up confidence right now," Bryson said. Harm Bandholz from Unicredit said, "so far the Fed hasn t disappointed the market and we don t think it will do it this time." Bandholz noted that there is a "slight probability" of the Fed making a 0.75 pct point cut, but such a large cut "would be the wrong signal in light of the looming fiscal stimulus bill." THURSDAY JANUARY 31 The number of individuals filing first time claims for unemployment in the week ending January 26 is expected to increase to 318,000 from 301,000 in the previous week. The number of people who continue to receive unemployment insurance in the week ending January 19 is expected to increase to 2.675 mln from 2.672 mln in the previous week.
Jobless claims have recently been on a downward trend, "sending signals that are contrary to the message from all other labor market reports," according to economists from Northern Trust. Personal income is expected to increase 0.4 pct in December, the same rate of increase as in the previous month. Personal consumption for the month is expected to have increased 0.1 pct following a 1.1 pct increase in November.
"The slowdown in consumer confidence is starting to hit the consumer," Guatieri said about the expected dip in personal consumption. The core PCE price index is expected to have contracted by 2.2 pct between December 2006 and December 2007, the same year over year contraction as in November.
Guatieri said the PCE growth rate will still be a "little bit above the Fed s presumed comfort zone," which in normal circumstances "might get the Fed s inflation antennae up." However, in the current situation, the Fed is "much more worried about" downward risks to growth, Gautieri said. FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1 Non-farm payrolls for January are expected to increase 58,000 after a meager 18,000 increase in December. Meanwhile, unemployment for January is expected to dip down to 4.9 pct following a surprising 5.0 pct in December.
Bandholz said that payroll and unemployment will improve slightly in January because December s report pointed to a "too gloomy picture of the market," noting in particular the Fed s positive tone on the labor market in its most recent Beige Book.
However, Sal Gautieri of BMO Capital Markets said he still expects "a very modest rebound," one that "would indicate that the trend in labor markets is weakening."
The ISM manufacturing survey is expected to drop yet again in January to 47.0 from 47.7 in December. Last month was the first time since January 2007 that the ISM fell below the 50 threshold, which generally suggests contraction in the economy.
Economists from Credit Suisse say further deterioration "is suggested by declines in regional surveys from the Philadelphia, New York, and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks."
Bandholz said the "pretty gloomy outlook" for ISM is largely due to problems in the housing sector as well as in the automobile industry. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to drop to 79.0 in January from 80.5 in the previous month. tessa.moran@thomson.com tlm/wash/jlw COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News. MMMM
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